Win Disputes Without Losing Your VAMP Ratio
Most representment platforms maximize win rate. We optimize for portfolio VAMP ratio — fighting the disputes worth winning, accepting the ones that aren't, and protecting your acquirer relationship from threshold breaches. See it across a 1,000-merchant simulation, running on the same engine deployed today on the Stripe App Marketplace.
Total merchants
0
Total disputes
0
Portfolio VAMP ratio
0.37%
At-risk merchants
0
The Portfolio, By Tier
Most merchants are healthy. The long tail is what matters.
Visa fines acquirers $4–8 per disputed transaction when a portfolio crosses 1.5%. Most merchants stay healthy on their own — the at-risk tail is where automated decisions earn their keep.
6 Months of Portfolio Trajectory
ChargePilot tracks every merchant's projected end-of-month ratio — not just lifetime average. Decisions react to current trajectory.
Reference lines mark caution (0.75%), urgent (1.0%), and critical (1.5%) tiers. The portfolio aggregate stays well below threshold — but individual merchants have very different trajectories.
The 20 Merchants That Need Attention
Sorted by projected end-of-month ratio. Each one gets a tailored recommendation.
| Business ↕ | MCC ↕ | Lifetime Ratio ↕ | Projected EOM ↓ | Tier ↕ | Recommended Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coral Works LLC | 7372 | 3.97% | 41.17% | critical | Auto-accept all new disputes — fighting deepens VAMP exposure at this ratio level. |
| Onyx Holdings | 5732 | 1.57% | 17.94% | elevated | Standard decision logic; review monthly trend. |
| Meridian Trading Co | 5732 | 3.12% | 11.47% | critical | Auto-accept all new disputes — fighting deepens VAMP exposure at this ratio level. |
| Stellar Outpost | 5945 | 2.86% | 10.31% | critical | Auto-accept all new disputes — fighting deepens VAMP exposure at this ratio level. |
| Crystal Partners LLC | 5691 | 0.80% | 10.12% | moderate | Healthy buffer — continue fighting all defensible disputes. |
| Cascade Atelier Co | 5734 | 1.21% | 9.64% | elevated | Standard decision logic; review monthly trend. |
| Meridian Trading | 5734 | 2.85% | 9.48% | critical | Auto-accept all new disputes — fighting deepens VAMP exposure at this ratio level. |
| Cascade House | 7372 | 1.47% | 7.18% | urgent | Tighten EFW threshold to 50, prioritize deflection emails on high-amount charges. |
| Orbit Collective LLC | 5945 | 0.65% | 7.08% | moderate | Healthy buffer — continue fighting all defensible disputes. |
| Beacon Industries | 5732 | 1.56% | 6.77% | urgent | Maintain current thresholds, refund any low-probability disputes to protect ratio headroom. |
| Orbit Solutions | 5691 | 1.75% | 6.68% | urgent | Maintain current thresholds, refund any low-probability disputes to protect ratio headroom. |
| Glacier Outpost LLC | 5814 | 1.16% | 6.63% | caution | Monitor closely; selective fighting only on disputes with high win probability. |
| Iron Holdings | 5691 | 1.35% | 6.40% | urgent | Maintain current thresholds, refund any low-probability disputes to protect ratio headroom. |
| Tundra Associates | 5691 | 1.12% | 6.09% | caution | Monitor closely; selective fighting only on disputes with high win probability. |
| Vapor Exchange Corp | 5945 | 1.29% | 5.80% | caution | Monitor closely; selective fighting only on disputes with high win probability. |
| Cascade Forge Inc | 5814 | 0.96% | 5.75% | elevated | Standard decision logic; review monthly trend. |
| Vapor Outfitters | 5732 | 1.19% | 5.73% | caution | Monitor closely; selective fighting only on disputes with high win probability. |
| Ember House Corp | 5814 | 1.28% | 5.67% | caution | Monitor closely; selective fighting only on disputes with high win probability. |
| Ridge Holdings Co | 5734 | 1.16% | 5.65% | caution | Monitor closely; selective fighting only on disputes with high win probability. |
| Lumen Associates Corp | 5734 | 0.89% | 5.63% | elevated | Standard decision logic; review monthly trend. |
Click column headers to sort. Tier definitions: Healthy (<0.3%) · Moderate (0.3–0.75%) · Elevated (0.75–1.0%) · Caution (1.0–1.25%) · Urgent (1.25–1.5%) · Critical (1.5%+)
The Decision Engine In Action
This is the actual logic running in production. Every dispute gets evaluated against the merchant's specific VAMP exposure.
Summit Exchange Corp
10.4 Fraudulent
Dispute amount
$174.41
Win probability
78%
EV_fight
$133
EV_refund
-$174
Win probability 78%, VAMP penalty $0 (merchant at 0.40% ratio). EV_fight = $133 vs EV_refund = -$174 → fight. Margin 176% above conservative threshold.
Maple Outpost
13.1 Unrecognized
Dispute amount
$16.55
Win probability
71%
EV_fight
$7
EV_refund
-$17
Win probability 71%, VAMP penalty $0 (merchant at 0.20% ratio). EV_fight = $7 vs EV_refund = -$17 → fight. Margin 141% above conservative threshold.
Beacon Studio
13.1 Product Not Received
Dispute amount
$108.17
Win probability
65%
EV_fight
$65
EV_refund
-$108
Win probability 65%, VAMP penalty $0 (merchant at 0.50% ratio). EV_fight = $65 vs EV_refund = -$108 → fight. Margin 160% above conservative threshold.
Cinder Exchange Inc
13.7 Cancelled Recurring
Dispute amount
$267.11
Win probability
82%
EV_fight
$216
EV_refund
-$267
Win probability 82%, VAMP penalty $0 (merchant at 0.30% ratio). EV_fight = $216 vs EV_refund = -$267 → fight. Margin 181% above conservative threshold.
Beacon Industries
10.4 Fraudulent
Dispute amount
$440.88
Win probability
42%
EV_fight
-$304
EV_refund
-$441
VAMP penalty (loss exposure)
$480
Merchant at 1.78% ratio (over 1.5% VAMP threshold). Each lost dispute incurs $480 estimated VAMP fine exposure. EV_fight = $-304 vs EV_refund = -$441 → refund preserves ratio headroom.
Coral Works LLC
13.1 Unrecognized
Dispute amount
$53.91
Win probability
55%
EV_fight
-$297
EV_refund
-$54
VAMP penalty (loss exposure)
$320
Merchant at 1.62% ratio (over 1.5% VAMP threshold). Each lost dispute incurs $320 estimated VAMP fine exposure. EV_fight = $-297 vs EV_refund = -$54 → refund preserves ratio headroom.
Glacier House Inc
13.3 Not as Described
Dispute amount
$80.49
Win probability
38%
EV_fight
-$389
EV_refund
-$80
VAMP penalty (loss exposure)
$410
Merchant approaching VAMP threshold at 1.44%. VAMP penalty $410 on loss outweighs EV_fight gain. EV_fight = $-389 vs EV_refund = -$80 → refund.
Ember Exchange LLC
12.6 Duplicate Processing
Dispute amount
$152.69
Win probability
52%
EV_fight
-$18
EV_refund
-$153
VAMP penalty (loss exposure)
$90
Win probability borderline (52%), high dispute amount. EV_fight and EV_refund within 8% — human judgment beats auto-decide.
Quantum Labs
13.6 Credit Not Processed
Dispute amount
$194.47
Win probability
48%
EV_fight
-$54
EV_refund
-$194
VAMP penalty (loss exposure)
$140
Reason code 13.6 requires refund-receipt evidence not present in transaction record. Escalate for ops review of refund policy adherence.
Stellar Outfitters Inc
13.1 Product Not Received
Dispute amount
$518.11
Win probability
61%
EV_fight
$235
EV_refund
-$518
VAMP penalty (loss exposure)
$75
Tracking shows delivery to apartment building but no signature confirmation. Win probability 61% with VAMP cushion thinning — escalate to confirm shipping evidence completeness.
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